Portfolio Comparison

60/40 vs 80/20 vs BTC-tilt. Monte Carlo outcomes side-by-side.

Portfolio Comparison Inputs

Risk/Return Trade-offs

• 60/40 Traditional: Lower volatility (0.0%) but modest returns

• 80/20 Aggressive: Higher expected returns with manageable risk increase

• BTC Tilt (10%): Slightly higher returns with moderate volatility bump

• BTC Heavy (20%): Highest potential returns but significantly higher volatility

Educational only. Not financial advice. See Disclaimer for details.

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Growth Potential

Bitcoin has historically shown higher growth potential than traditional portfolios, but with significantly higher volatility and risk.

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Risk Management

Traditional portfolios offer more predictable returns and lower volatility, making them suitable for conservative retirement planning.

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Time Horizon

Your investment timeline greatly affects which strategy performs better. Longer horizons may favor Bitcoin's potential.

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Diversification

Many financial advisors recommend a mixed approach rather than all-in on either Bitcoin or traditional assets.

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Historical Performance

While Bitcoin has outperformed stocks over its existence, it has a much shorter track record than traditional markets.

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Regulatory Environment

Traditional portfolios benefit from established regulatory frameworks, while Bitcoin faces evolving regulations worldwide.

🎯 Common Portfolio Allocation Strategies

🟢 Conservative: 40% Stocks / 60% Bonds

Low-risk approach prioritizing capital preservation with modest growth. Expected annual return: 5-6% with lower volatility.

Best for: Risk-averse investors nearing retirement or in retirement

🟡 Moderate: 60% Stocks / 40% Bonds

Balanced approach following the traditional "60/40" rule. Expected annual return: 7-8% with moderate volatility.

Best for: Middle-aged investors with 10-20 years to retirement

🔴 Aggressive: 80% Stocks / 20% Bonds

Growth-focused approach for long-term wealth building. Expected annual return: 9-10% with higher volatility.

Best for: Young investors with 20+ years to retirement

🟠 Bitcoin Allocation: 1-10% of Portfolio

Adding Bitcoin as a small allocation to traditional portfolios for potential upside while maintaining diversification.

Best for: Investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without excessive risk

🔬 Our Comparison Methodology

Bitcoin Modeling

  • • Multiple price models (Power Law, Stock-to-Flow, S-Curve)
  • • Historical volatility: ~65% annually
  • • Tax considerations and inflation adjustments
  • • No management fees (self-custody assumed)
  • • Monthly DCA investment strategy

Traditional Portfolio Modeling

  • • Historical stock market returns (8-12% annually)
  • • Bond returns (3-5% annually)
  • • Portfolio volatility: ~12-18% annually
  • • 0.5-0.7% annual management fees
  • • Monthly investment contributions

Risk Assessment Framework

Our comparison includes comprehensive risk analysis considering:

Market Risk

Price volatility and correlation analysis

Regulatory Risk

Legal and policy change considerations

Liquidity Risk

Ease of accessing funds when needed

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Investment Risk Warning

Portfolio comparison involves significant risks and considerations:

  • Past performance does not guarantee future results for any asset class
  • Bitcoin is highly volatile and speculative compared to traditional assets
  • Traditional portfolios have longer historical data but face changing market conditions
  • Consider your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial situation carefully
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Modeling Limitations

Our comparison models have important limitations:

  • Bitcoin price models are theoretical and highly uncertain
  • Traditional market returns may not match historical averages
  • Real-world factors like taxes, fees, and behavioral biases not fully captured
  • Correlation between assets may change during market stress
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Professional Advice Required

This tool provides educational comparisons only:

  • Consult qualified financial advisors for personalized investment advice
  • Consider your entire financial picture, not just retirement savings
  • Tax implications vary significantly by jurisdiction and situation
  • Emergency funds and insurance needs should be addressed first